The Progressive Conservative leadership race may seem rushed, precarious and unpredictable. But to boil it down to the simplest level, it comes down to this: unless someone runs away with the race, which appears very unlikely, there will be a final ballot with only two candidates on it.
It seems probable that one of those candidates will be Doug Ford. He appeals to a certain segment of the party and he has a good organization behind him. The other candidate on the final ballot will almost certainly be either Christine Elliott or Caroline Mulroney. The limited evidence so far seems to suggest that Elliott has the advantage over Mulroney. So there’s a good chance it will come down to Elliott and Ford.
In other words, it’s looking less likely that Caroline Mulroney will be the next premier of Ontario. Either way, one week from tomorrow there will be a new leader of the Progressive Conservatives who will have almost three months to get ready for the next election and make Patrick Brown a distant memory.