It’s too soon to conclude the Progressive Conservatives have no chance of winning the next provincial election. Losing their leader is a huge blow. But the people saying they can't win are forgetting the old adage that a week is a lifetime in politics.
Most voters don’t start paying attention to the campaign until the final month. That’s more than three months from now, more than enough time for the new leader to get ready for televised debates and campaign appearances. After 15 years of Liberal government, the appetite for change is still significant. And the Conservatives aren’t the only ones who are starting over.
The Liberals have been preparing to run against Patrick Brown for a couple of years. Now they have to go back to the drawing board too. More importantly, the expectations for the Conservatives are now much lower, giving the new leader a chance to outperform. Fifty years ago, Pierre Trudeau became Liberal leader in April and won a majority in June. The Conservatives have even more time than that before the next election.