There’s plenty of evidence that the shine has come off the Justin Trudeau government. Several polls show a tightening of the race between the Liberals and Conservatives. There’s even one that suggests that one in four people who voted Liberal in the last election now regret doing so. But it’s way too early to assume Team Trudeau is in trouble for the 2019 election.
Yes, there have been broken promises over electoral reform and budget deficits, plus the backlash over small-business taxes. And Bill Morneau’s finances and Justin Trudeau’s travels to a Caribbean island do suggest the government is out of touch with ordinary Canadians. But the Liberals still have many cards to play in the next two years.
No doubt, they have plenty of perfectly timed spending announcements and other goodies to hand out to Canadians in the days leading up to October 2019. And when the question moves from hypothetical to real in two years, voters will judge the Liberals in a different context. Unless there are more and bigger mistakes, Justin Trudeau is still the overwhelming favourite to win the next election.